Friday, January 14, 2011

Housing Outlook 2011: When Home Prices Will Head Up


Excerpt from When Home Prices Will Head Up
By Pat Mertz Esswein, Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine


The lowest mortgage interest rates in almost 60 years, plus affordable homes in cities where buyers had been priced out for years, should be turning the housing market around. But the market also labors under some heavy burdens: a glut of foreclosures that are dragging down home prices, high unemployment and tight credit. Sales fell off a cliff after the home-buyer tax credit expired. And “foreclosure-gate” -- legal squabbling about the process used to repossess many homes -- postponed the sale of many foreclosed properties and struck yet another body blow to confidence in the housing market.

The home-price plunge has left 23% of mortgage borrowers (out of 53.5 million) underwater -- that is, they owe more on their mortgage than the market value of their home. Unless they can ante up the difference -- an average of $75,000, according to CoreLogic, which analyzes mortgage data -- they can’t sell and they can’t move. Their choices? Stick it out, ask the lender for permission to sell for less than they owe (a short sale), or default.

Now, short sales and foreclosures are the driving force behind continued price declines. Throughout 2010, they accounted for about one-third of home sales, with an average price discount of 26%, according to RealtyTrac. Everyone agrees that more such sales are on the way, but estimates vary.

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